MAY 30, 2023 – HOTTER THAN EXPECTED PCE REPORT Following the recent report showing inflation is runningat a still robust 4.9 percent, the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) rose 0.4 percent for April, higher than the 0.3 percent expected. On a year-over-year basis, it is up 4.7 percent.  Including food and energy, the PCE is up 4.4 percent from …

MAY 22, 2023 – AS INFLATION REMAINS ENTRENCHED A RATE CUT IS UNLIKELY THIS YEAR As inflation is continuing to run above the Fed’s targeted 2 percent, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes there will not be any cuts to the Federal Funds rate in 2023, even if there is a recession. He spoke at the Atlanta Fed’s Financial Markets …

MAY 15, 2023 – INFLATION COOLS SLIGHTLY IN APRIL US inflation eased to its lowest level in 5 years, the consumer price index came in at 4.9 percent for April following a 5 percent increase in March. The figure was below analysts’ expectations and is the tenth consecutive month of declines in the year-over-year growth rate. Core CPI (excluding energy …

MAY 8, 2023 – RATES RISE BY 0.25 PERCENT FOLLOWED BY A STRONG APRIL JOB REPORT Last week the Federal Reserve approved a tenth rate hike in a little over a year, when they announced a 0.25 percentage point increase in the benchmark Federal Funds rate, which now ranges between 5 and 5.25 percent. This is the highest it’s been …

MAY 1, 2023 – GDP UP 1.1 PERCENT, PCE UP 4.2 PERCENT AHEAD OF FED MEETING US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.1 percent for the first quarter of 2023, less than half of the 2.6 percent seen in the fourth quarter of 2022. Analysts had been expecting GDP growth of 2 percent. Consumer prices rose slightly last …

APRIL 17, 2023 – INFLATION FALLS FOR THE NINTH MONTH IN A ROW TO 5 PERCENT US Inflation rose 0.1 percent in March and is up 5 percent from a year ago, with the data coming in below analyst expectations. 5 percent is the smallest 12-month increase in nearly two years. The March figure marks the ninth consecutive year-over-year decline …

APRIL 10, 2023 – HIRING SLOWS DOWN  The US economy added 236,000 jobs in March, down from 326,000 jobs in February. The growth was the lowest monthly gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate is now 3.5 percent, down 0.1 percent from February. Average hourly earnings are up 0.3 percent month-over-month and 4.2 percent year-over-year. The wage gains are the …

APRIL 3, 2023 – PCE INFLATION DOWN IN FEBRUARY The Fed’s key inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), was released last week. It is up 0.3 percent in February, below expectations for 0.4 percent, and down from January’s 0.5 percent increase. On a 12-month basis, the PCE increased 4.6 percent, slightly below the level seen in January. Energy prices were …

MARCH 27, 2023 – FED RAISES RATES BY 25 BPS DESPITE BANKING TURMOIL At their scheduled meeting last week, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25 percent, its ninth consecutive increase. The rate hike was half the increase the Fed had been instituting lately, but some had been expecting no increase due to the current uncertainty in the banking sector. …

MARCH 20, 2023 – BANK COLLAPSE MAY DIVERT FED’S INTEREST RATE PLANS A financial crisis was seen to be one way the Fed would put a halt on interest rate increases, and the recent collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank may just be that crisis. Investors are now worrying about how turmoil in the US banking sector could damage the …