APRIL 13, 2020 – DIRE FORECAST FOR Q2, BUT HOPE FOR A Q3 REBOUND As economists throw modeling out the window, in what we hope is a once in a lifetime event,  JPMorgan is expecting a 40% decline in GNP for the second quarter and an unemployment rate of 20% in April, with the US having lost 25 million jobs. …

APRIL 6, 2020 – UNEMPLOYMENT SOARS 6.6 million Americans filed for unemployment insurance last week, bringing the total to 10 million filings over the past two weeks in record-shattering job losses. Before the coronavirus shut down much of the economy, the highest week for claims was 695,000 in 1982. The high during the last recession was 665,000 in March 2009. …

MARCH 30, 2020 – THE ECONOMY STOPS ON A DIME The job expansion that began in 2010 has ended.  We hope temporarily.  Until March, employers added to the payrolls for a record setting 113 months.  The unemployment rate was 3.5% in February, levels that were last seen in the 1960’s.  And, finally, wages had started moving up after lagging the …

MARCH 23, 2020 – INTEREST RATES ARE EFFECTIVELY AT ZERO In an attempt to mitigate slowing economic growth form the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed cut interest rates by 100 bps last Sunday.  This has taken rates down to effectively zero, their lowest since 2015.  The bank also went ahead with a huge $700 billion quantitative easing program. …

MARCH 16, 2020 – FED ADDRESSES LIQUIDITY STRAINS The Fed sped up its previously announced purchases of treasury securities to try and ease the strains on the financial markets.  On Friday, they announced they would buy about half of some $80 billion in treasury securities they said would be purchased over the course of a month.  They are ready to …

MARCH 9, 2020 – SUDDEN DROP IN INTEREST RATE TO MITIGATE CORONOVIRUS FEARS On February 21 the recession odds for the US were at a 15-month low, according to JP Morgan; only a week later virus fears caused the market to slide down 10 percent.  Investor confidence was shattered by fears of a global slowdown as a result of spreading …

MARCH 2, 2020 – POWELL OPENS DOOR TO POSSIBLE INTEREST RATE CUT Reversing his determination not to cut interest rates, Fed Chair Powell said on Friday he would be open to bringing rates down to stave off a recession brought on by coronavirus fears worldwide. “The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong,” Powell said in a statement released by …

FEBRUARY 24, 2020 – G-20 FINANCE CHIEFS MET IN SAUDI ARABIA OVER THE WEEKEND Saturday, the finance chiefs of the world’s top 20 economies met in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia for presentation by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). They will be monitoring the impact of the coronavirus on global growth, and take steps, if needed, to loosen monetary policy and ease …

FEBRUARY 17, 2020 – POWELL TO CONGRESS: ECONOMY ON TRACK Jerome Powell spoke to the House Financial Services Committee last week, saying, “There is nothing about this economy that is out of kilter or imbalanced.”  The chairman is satisfied with much of the economic data, noting that the expansion is well into its 11th year — the longest period of …

FEBRUARY 10, 2020 – NEW JOBS CREATED IN JANUARY, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOLDS The Labor Department reported the US economy added a solid 225,000 new jobs in January, with the unemployment rate ticking up slightly from 3.5 to 3.6 percent. This data could indicate a great year ahead, if the labor market continues to fuel economic growth through 2020. The labor …