NOVEMBER 11, 2019 – THE ECONOMY IS HOLDING ITS OWN FOR NOW Economists believe the latest labor market data shows underlying economic strength. Resilience in the pace of hiring indicates growth is easing, but not in free fall. The hiring rate has been near cyclical highs for a number of years. Layoffs are at historic lows as is the unemployment …
November 4, 2019 — Fed Cuts Interest Rates by 25 BPs
NOVEMBER 4, 2019 – FED CUTS INTEREST RATES BY 25 BPS As anticipated, the Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week. Rates now stand in a range of 1.5% to 1.75%. The drop in rates as the third one this year as part of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s “mid-cycle adjustment” in a maturing economic expansion. …
October 21, 2019 — US Retail Sales Fall for the First Time in 7 Months
OCTOBER 21, 2019 – US RETAIL SALES FALL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 7 MONTHS The Commerce Department announced September retail sales fell 0.3 percent as households spent less last month. The decline was the first since February, and worrisome, as the consumer has been the driving force behind the economic expansion. Consumption, which accounts for 66 percent of US …
October 14, 2019 — Fed Starts to Increase the Supply of Bank Reserves
OCTOBER 14, 2019 – FED STARTS TO INCREASE THE SUPPLY OF BANK RESERVES Last week, the Fed announced it will start buying short term treasury debt starting tomorrow. Their plan is to purchase $60 billion per month through the second quarter of 2020. The Fed is correcting their decision to let reserves drop too low The Fed had been shrinking …
October 7, 2019 — Labor Data for September is a Bit Disappointing
OCTOBER 7, 2019 – LABOR DATA FOR SEPTEMBER IS A BIT DISAPPOINTING US economy added 135,000 new jobs in September, missing expectations for 145,000 jobs. However, numbers for past months were revised upward. August jobs are rose to 168,000 from an initial estimate of 130,000, while July was increased to 166,000 from 159,000. It’s a net gain of 45,000 positions. …
September 30, 2019 — Economic Data Begins to Falter
SEPTEMBER 30, 2019 – ECONOMIC DATA BEGINS TO FALTER Government data for August and September released last week indicate the economy is starting to slow. Consumer spending was up only 0.1% in August; worrisome as it accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity. Data for July was revised down by 0.1%, from 0.6% to 0.5%. Year over year …
September 23, 2019 — Fed Rolls back Interest Rates 25 bps
SEPTEMBER 23, 2019 – FED ROLLS BACK INTEREST RATES 25 BPS As expected, the US Fed cut its short-term benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, the second time in as many months. Rates are now in a range of 1.75 percent to 2 percent. The door was left open for additional cuts, but a timeframe was not mentioned. The …
September 16, 2019 — Inflation Starts to Move
SEPTEMBER 16, 2019 – INFLATION STARTS TO MOVE US consumer prices rose in August by 0.3 percent for the third straight month. But it unlikely it will deter the Fed from cutting interest rates this week. The Fed’s accommodation is being dictated by weakening growth prospects, not inflation. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, increased 2.4 percent for the last …
September 9, 2019 — August Job Numbers Fall Short, but Wages Are Up
SEPTEMBER 9, 2019 – AUGUST JOB NUMBERS FALL SHORT, BUT WAGES ARE UP The US economy adds 130,00 new jobs in August, fewer than expected than the expected 150,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7 percent, while wages rose 0.4 percent for the month. Despite the weak gains, the numbers do not signal a recession. The labor force participation …
September 3, 2019 — Adjusted Q2 Economic Data Bodes Well for the US Economy
SEPTEMBER 3, 2019 – ADJUSTED Q2 ECONOMIC DATA BODES WELL FOR US ECONOMY Second quarter US GDP results were revised slightly down to 2% from the 2.1% initially reported. But the underlying fundamentals continue to indicate the second half of 2019 should hold steady. Consumer spending, the driver of US economic growth, has come in stronger than first reported. Its …