JANUARY 26, 2026 – – NOVEMBER’S PCE COMES IN AT 2.8 PERCENT
The personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve’s main inflation gauge, for November was reported at 2.8 percent. The data was in line with expectations but remains above the Fed’s target of 2 percent. The PCE increased by 0.2 percent for both October and November. Data for both months is being released now due to the suspension of data collection during the government shutdown in November.
The Commerce Department also reported that personal income rose by 0.1 percent in October and 0.3 percent in November. Personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.5 percent each month, meeting expectations.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the US GDP rose 4.4 percent in Q3, and the Labor Department reported jobless claims are near their lowest levels in two years. All the data is indicative of a steady economy despite a slight softening in the labor market.
Based on this data, the Fed is expected not to change interest rates at their meeting midweek. Predictions are now for only two rate reductions in 2026, given the stubborn inflation and uncertainty in global politics.