MARCH 3, 2025 – Q4 DATA UPDATES, JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE
Last week key indicators were updated, giving a clearer picture of the economy. Fourth quarter real GDP was unrevised at 2.3 percent, following a strong 3.1 percent expansion in Q3; the number was robust enough to indicate solid momentum going into 2025. Consumer spending was up 4.2 percent in Q4, while the core PCE for Q4 was revised up by 0.1 percent to 2.8 percent for the year. In general, inflation seems to be relatively flat, but trade tariffs and shifts in immigration policy may start driving inflation up.
The Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims rose greater than expected, up 22,000 to 242,000 for the week; it was the largest increase in 5 months. Some of the increase is attributed to the bad weather experienced across the country. The increase in claims did not include the mass government layoffs, which could come through in the upcoming weeks.
The Fed’s will meet in two weeks on March 18-19, when no changes in monetary policy are expected.