US weekly jobless claims remain near a 57-year low, indicating a resilient job market. This is good news for the Fed, as it makes their job easier by being able to focus on inflation control without being too concerned about the employment situation. There were 197,000 claims for the week ending September 19, down 1,000 from the previous week. A year ago, the jobless claims were 181,000 for the comparable week.
Despite the stability in the labor market, consumer confidence continues to slip. Consumer confidence was reported to be 48.1 for September, a decline from August’s 51.7. Consumers remain worried about inflation, both short term and long term, and changes in consumer behavior could drive future prices up. The FOMC watches this data closely and uses the information to tweak monetary policy.
The August personal consumption index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, will be released Thursday, and the September unemployment report will be released on Friday. The Fed will meet the last week of October where the odds are 60 to 65 percent that rates will increase. The Fed’s last meeting of the year is set for December 8-9.