The Blog

JULY 14, 2025 – INFLATION FORECASTS RETREAT The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations reported its respondents predict inflation will be at 3 percent a year from now, the same level as anticipated in January. Fears of the government tariffs causing a spike in inflation seem to have disappeared. This is a 0.2 percent decline from May, and well …

JULY 7, 2025 – US ADDS 147,000 NEW JOBS IN JUNE The Labor Department reported the economy added 147,000 new jobs last month, above the gain of 110,000 that were expected. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2 percent to 4.1 percent month-over-month. New jobs in March and April were revised higher by 16,000. The strong showing indicates the US economy …

JUNE 30, 2025 – PCE UP 0.1 PERCENT IN MAY The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge rose 0.1 percent in May, bringing the annual inflation rate at 2.3 percent, matching expectations. The core personal consumption index (PCE) was up 0.2 percent for the month and 2.7 percent annually. The core PCE excludes volatile food and energy prices. The numbers remain …

JUNE 23, 2025 – FED SIGNALS TWO RATE CUTS LATER THIS YEAR The Federal Reserve met last week and did not change its key borrowing rate. They cited expectations for inflation to stay elevated and economic growth to slow. Rates have been in the 4.25 to 4.5 percent since December. The Fed indicated two rate cuts are still anticipated for …

JUNE 16, 2025 – CPI UP 2.4 PERCENT IN MAY The consumer price index rose 2.4 percent year-over-year in May, up slightly from 2.3 percent experienced in April. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was up by 2.8 percent for the third month in a row. Even though the prices for some items have risen, possibly due to the impact …

JUNE 9, 2025 – FEWER NEW JOBS IN MAY, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOLDS Job growth slowed in May with the addition of 139,000 new positions, as employers are cautious about the economic outlook and the impact the new tariffs will have on business. The unemployment rate for May was 4.2 percent, unchanged from April. Economists call this a low-hiring and low-firing …

JUNE 2, 2025 – INFLATION DROPS TO 2.1 PERCENT The personal consumption index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was up 0.1 percent in April, which makes the annual inflation rate at 2.2 percent. Core inflation was also up 0.1 percent, or 2.5 percent annualized. The inflation rate is near the Fed’s targeted 2 percent, but the tariffs put into place …

MAY 27, 2025 – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND PCE RELEASE THIS WEEK The most current consumer confidence numbers will be released later today, while the personal consumption index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will come out on Friday. This data will help assess the health of the economy and its future prospects. Consumer sentiment has been at record setting lows in …

MAY 19, 2025 – INFLATION AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT DOWN The CPI rose 0.2 percent for the month of April or 2.3 percent at an annualized rate, the lowest since February 2021. The reading was below economists’ expectations. It was good news, but worries over Trump tariffs and rebounding inflation remain. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was down to …

MAY 12, 2025 – FED MEETS, RATES REMAIN UNCHANGED The Fed met last week and continued to hold rates steady between 4.25 to 4.5 percent, where they have been since December. The uncertainty in the economic outlook was cited as the reason they are choosing to wait before lowering rates. The Fed is concerned that both inflation and the unemployment …