The Blog

OCTOBER 21, 2024 – RETAIL SALES UP, JOB CLAIMS DOWN IN SEPTEMBER Retail sales in September were up 0.4 percent, beating expectations, and an improvement over the 0.1 percent rise in August. The economy seems to be holding its own as consumers keep spending. This is good news, as consumers are responsible for two-thirds of all economic activity in the …

OCTOBER 14, 2024 – INFLATION SLOWS IN SEPTEMBER The US inflation was 2.4 percent annually for September, the lowest increase since inflation took off in 2021. Month over month prices were up 0.2 percent, the same as seen in August. Core inflation remained elevated, up 3.3 percent for the year, and up 0.3 percent from August. Overall, it seems inflation …

OCTOBER 7, 2024 – EMPLOYMENT RISES IN SEPTEMBER The US job market added 254,000 new jobs in September, the highest level of job growth in six months. The number is almost 100,000 more jobs than the 159,000 reported in August and far higher than expectations of 150,000 jobs.  The unemployment rate for September was down 0.1 percent month over month …

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024 – PCE INFLATION LOWER THAN EXPECTED The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in lower than expected in August. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index indicates inflation is slowing, which opens the door for additional rate reductions this year. The PCE was up 0.1 percent for the month, or 2.2 percent annually.  Excluding food and energy, the …

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024 – FED CUTS RATES BY 50 BASIS POINTS The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 50 basis points at last week’s meeting. The cut was larger than expected, and the first since the start of covid. The last time rates were cut by half a percent was in 2008 during the global financial crisis. The cut indicates …

SEPTEMBER 16, 2024 – INFLATION FALLS ENSURING A RATE CUT THIS WEEK The annual inflation rate for August was reported at 2.5 percent, a 3-year low. The moderate rise has cleared the way for the Fed to lower interest rates. The 2.5 percent figure was the fifth straight annual drop and the lowest it has been since February 2021. On …

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024 – MODERATE JOBS REPORT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DECLINES The Labor Department released August jobs numbers on Friday. The US economy added 142,000 new jobs last month, below expectations of 161,000, but still a solid number. Job numbers for June and July were also revised down, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent in …

SEPTEMBER 3, 2024 – SEPTEMBER RATE CUT A NEAR CERTAINTY The Commerce Department released the personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) on Friday, which showed inflation edged up slightly in July by 0.2 percent for the month and is up 2.5 percent from a year ago. The PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and is seen as a better …

AUGUST 26, 2024 – HUGE JOBS REVISION CREATES URGENCY FOR A RATE CUT The non-farm payroll numbers were revised down by 30 percent from what was initially reported in the 12-month period from March 2023-2024. The US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs, which averages to 174,000 monthly gains versus the reported 242,000. More than 2 million jobs were created in …

AUGUST 19, 2024 – INFLATION FALLS BELOW 3 PERCENT The Consumer Price index (CPI) rose 0.2 percent in July, bringing the 12-month inflation rate to 2.9 percent, the lowest it has been since March 2021. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) was up 0.2 percent for the month and 3.2 percent for the year. The data came in slightly …