The Blog

OCTOBER 3, 2022 – CONSUMER SPENDING HOLDS DESPITE INFLATION Household spending rose by 0.4 percent in August after being down 0.2 percent in July. The personal consumption index rose 6.2 percent year over year in August, down from a 6.4 percent increase in July.  Core PCE (excluding food and energy) was up 4.9 percent year over year, up from a …

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022 — FED INSTITUTES ANOTHER AGGRESSIVE RATE HIKE The Federal Reserve raised rates by another 0.75 percent last week, the third 0.75 percent raise in a row as the Fed tries to tame inflation.  The Fed expects its terminal-rate, or end point, to reach 4.6 percent in 2023, and indicated they plan to stay aggressive, with rates expected …

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022 – INFLATION REMAINS HIGH FORCING THE FED TO ACT The rate of inflation slowed in August for the second straight month, but it is still high at 8.3 percent year-over-year. Prices were up 0.1 percent from July. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, exceeded expectations coming in up 6.3 percent year-over-year and 0.6 percent from July. …

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022 – FED EXPECTED TO RAISE RATES ANOTHER 0.75 PERCENT NEXT WEEK The Fed is on the path to raise rates by 0.75 percent this month at their September 20-21 meeting. According to the CME Group, there is a 75 percent probability that rates will go up by that much.  Powell’s August speech at Jackson Hole indicated he …

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022 – SOLID JOBS REPORT FOR AUGUST The US showed respectable job growth in August adding 315,000 new jobs. However, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percent to 3.7 percent, while hourly wages were up 5.2 percent year-over-year in August. Even though the unemployment rate rose a bit, attributable to a rise in the labor force participation rate, …

AUGUST 29, 2022 – POWELL SPEAKS AT JACKSON HOLE; RATES STILL TO RISE Citing the inflation experience 40 years ago, Fed Chair Powell spoke of the Fed’s intentions at the annual Jackson Hole economic conference. There are three lessons to heed: The Fed is responsible for managing inflation, expectations are critical, and they must keep at it until the job …

AUGUST 22, 2022 – RETAIL SPENDING HOLDS STEADY IN JULY US retail spending was up 0.7 percent in July, indicating the consumers still have the capacity to spend despite rising inflation. In June retail spending was up 0.8 percent. Falling gas prices have put more money into consumers’ hands during the last nine weeks. Shoppers have kept up spending despite …

AUGUST 15, 2022 – INFLATION EASES FROM 40-YEAR HIGHS US inflation in July came in at 8.5 percent, down slightly from its 4-decade high of 9.1 percent in June.  Monthly CPI was flat in July after rising for 25 consecutive months, mostly as a result of cheaper energy prices. Core CPI fell to a 0.3 percent increase from a 0.7 …

AUGUST 8, 2022 – JOB NUMBERS ROAR WITH OVER 500,000 NEW GAINS IN JULY The US economy added 528,000 jobs in July, twice the number expected, with the country having regained all 22 million jobs lost since the beginning of the pandemic.  Unemployment fell from 3.6 percent to 3.5 percent; the unemployment number is the lowest since February 2020 and …

AUGUST 1, 2022 –- FED RAISE RATES, INFLATION HOLDS STEADY, GDP FALLS Last week was very newsworthy. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.75 percent for a second month in a row. The personal consumptions expenditures index (PPE) rose to the highest level since 1982, with a 6.8 percent increase in June. The PPE is followed closely by the Fed …