The Blog

JULY 22, 2024 – FED MAY ACT BEFORE INFLATION HITS THEIR 2% TARGET Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke to the Economic Club of Washington last week. He said the Fed works with “long and variable lags”, meaning they are looking for “greater confidence” inflation will return to 2 percent but do not need to wait until that happens to cut …

JULY 15, 2024 – FED SOFTENS AS INFLATION AND LABOR DATA SLIP Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke in front of Congress Tuesday and Wednesday last week. He said the Fed does not expect to cut interest rates until they have gained greater confidence inflation is moving sustainably towards 2 percent. Though he pointed out inflation has dropped significantly recently. Powell …

JULY 8, 2024 – SOLID JUNE JOB REPORT; FED MEETING MINUTES RELEASED The Bureau of Labor Statistics released June’s labor data on Friday. The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percent to 4.1 percent, it’s the first time since November 2021 it’s been over 4 percent. 206,000 new jobs were added last month, the 42nd consecutive month of job growth. …

JULY 1, 2024 – PCE RISES 2.6 PERCENT IN MAY, LOWEST IN 3 YEARS The personal consumption index (PCE) was up 0.1 percent for the month of May, or 2.6 percent year over year. The increase is the lowest experienced since March 2021. The PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, as the PCE is a broader measure than the …

JUNE 24, 2024 – RETAIL SALES MISS EXPECTATIONS Retail sales in May rose less than expected, raising hopes the Fed will feel confident in lowering rates later this year. Sales growth has slowed as higher prices and inflation have made consumers cut back on discretionary spending. The 2-year tightening of monetary policy seems to have finally affected the economy. Retail …

JUNE 17, 2024 – FED PENCILS IN ONE RATE CUT FOR 2024 The Fed’s met last week, and they said that inflation has fallen toward their target in the last few months, but signaled they only expect to reduce rates once before the end of the year. At the start of this year, the Fed said they thought could lower …

JUNE 10, 2024 – LABOR MARKET DEFIES EXPECTATIONS The labor market exceeded economists’ expectations in May by adding 272,000 new jobs. The data far exceeded a predicted 190,000 new jobs, and a whopping 65 percent higher than the 165,000 jobs created in April. However, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percent to 4 percent, the highest since January 2022. Average …

JUNE 3, 2024 – US Q1 GDP REVISED DOWN A downgrade of first-quarter economic growth was announced last week. The US GDP grew at an annualized 1.3 percent in Q1 2024, below initial estimates of 1.6 percent, and well below the 3.4 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2023. The downward revision is the lowest quarterly growth number since …

MAY 28, 2024 – FED MAY MEETING MINUTES RELEASED, INFLATION CONCERNS Minutes from the Fed’s last meeting on April 30–May 1 were released last week. It stated the members remain concerned inflation has not been moving towards their 2 percent target in the last months, and some members are showing a willingness to further tighten monetary policy should the data …

MAY 20, 2024 – INFLATION EASES SLIGHTLY IN APRIL Inflation cooled in April after three months of higher-than-expected readings.  Consumer prices showed a one month rise of 0.3 percent, and a year-over-year increase of 3.4 percent, down 0.1 percent from March. The core inflation number is at its lowest level in 3 years at 3.6 percent, down from 3.8 percent …