The Blog

DECEMBER 10, 2018 – JOB GAINS SLOW IN NOVEMBER, BUT WAGES COME IN STRONG AGAIN The US economy added 155,000 new jobs in November, below expectations of 198,000 jobs.  The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent, while wage growth also equaled October’s results with 3.1 percent year-over-year growth. The Labor Department’s data for November dispels recession fears.  2018 is …

DECEMBER 3, 2018 – FED CHAIR HINTS RATE INCREASES ARE TOPPING OUT Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at the Economic Club of New York last week.  Stocks surged after he said the central bank may be closer to ending its push to increase interest rates. Powell said the Fed’s benchmark rate was “just below” the neutral level, a change from …

NOVEMBER 26, 2018 – OIL PRICES PLUNGE TO ONE-YEAR LOWS: BUYING OPPORTUNITY The big news in the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened week was oil prices falling to their lowest levels in more than a year following a rapid seven week sell-off. On Friday, oil had its largest one-day decline since July 2015, falling 7.7 percent. Geopolitics, a weakening world economy, as well …

NOVEMBER 19, 2018 – POWELL SPEAKS IN DALLAS: ALL FOMC MEETINGS ‘LIVE’ FOR RATE HIKES Fed Chair Jerome Powell was interviewed by Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan in Dallas last week.  Powell said he was confident in the strength of the US economy, and the markets need to expect the central bank could raise rates at any meeting, starting in …

NOVEMBER 12, 2018 — DATA CONTINUES TO PLEASE; FED SPEAKS TO RATE INCREASE Preliminary numbers on consumer sentiment were released Friday; they came in slightly above expectations. The index is on track for its best year since 2000. Consumers’ income expectations have improved and growth in employment is anticipated to continue, but they also foresee rising inflation and interest rates. …

NOVEMBER 5, 2018 – OCTOBER JOBS NUMBERS CRUSH AND WAGES MOVE UP Expectations were crushed as the Labor Department reported the US economy added 250,000 jobs in October. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent, a 49-year low, while year-over-year wage gains were up over 3 percent for the first time since the Great Recession. The big job gains …

OCTOBER 29, 2018 – GDP ACCELERATED IN Q3; RATE INCREASE IN DECEMBER ON TRACK Gross domestic product data last week showed the US economy grew by 3.3 percent in the third quarter, down from the 4.2 percent growth seen in Q2, but it remains a robust number.  The economy has expanded at a 2.9 percent annual rate since April 2017, …

OCTOBER 22, 2018 – HURRICANE FLORENCE AFFECTS ECONOMIC DATA Housing starts and retail sales missed economists’ expectations for last month with the effects of Hurricane Florence evident in the data. US homebuilding fell in September, with activity in the South falling the most in nearly three years, likely due to hurricane effects.  Starts in the South, which account for most …

OCTOBER 15, 2018 – CPI RISES LESS THAN EXPECTED; INFLATION PRESSURE SUBSIDES US consumer prices rose less than expected in September with rental costs slowing and energy prices falling.   The CPI increased 0.1 percent last month after being up 0.2 percent in August.  For the running 12-months, CPI is up 2.3 percent, a slowdown from the 2.7 percent 12-month advance …

OCTOBER 8, 2018 – SEPTEMBER JOBS INCREASE FALLS SHORT DUE TO HURRICANE The big job news for September was the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent, the lowest since 1969.  With the Trump tax credits in play and a tight labor market, forecasters predict the unemployment rate will fall even further in the coming months. However, only 134,000 new jobs …