AUGUST 11, 2025 – JULY CPI DATA RELEASED THIS WEEK
The Consumer Price Index for July will be released this week. Economists are predicting the Trump tariffs will be pushing inflation higher. The full impact of the tariffs have yet to be felt by US consumers as some of the inventories that are being depleted were stocked before import pricing rose.
Predictions are for an annualized 2.8 percent rate for July, but there are fears it could rise as high as 3 to 3.5 percent by December on a year-over-year basis. If inflation continues to trend upward, it makes it harder for the Fed to cut rates.
The futures markets are saying there is a 95 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut in September and a 62 percent chance of a further cut in October. The key is if inflation is limited to goods, rate will come down. But if the price of services rise as well, inflation could be seen as more entrenched.