Category Archive

JUNE 9, 2025 – FEWER NEW JOBS IN MAY, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOLDS Job growth slowed in May with the addition of 139,000 new positions, as employers are cautious about the economic outlook and the impact the new tariffs will have on business. The unemployment rate for May was 4.2 percent, unchanged from April. Economists call this a low-hiring and low-firing …

JUNE 2, 2025 – INFLATION DROPS TO 2.1 PERCENT The personal consumption index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, was up 0.1 percent in April, which makes the annual inflation rate at 2.2 percent. Core inflation was also up 0.1 percent, or 2.5 percent annualized. The inflation rate is near the Fed’s targeted 2 percent, but the tariffs put into place …

MAY 27, 2025 – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND PCE RELEASE THIS WEEK The most current consumer confidence numbers will be released later today, while the personal consumption index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will come out on Friday. This data will help assess the health of the economy and its future prospects. Consumer sentiment has been at record setting lows in …

MAY 19, 2025 – INFLATION AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT DOWN The CPI rose 0.2 percent for the month of April or 2.3 percent at an annualized rate, the lowest since February 2021. The reading was below economists’ expectations. It was good news, but worries over Trump tariffs and rebounding inflation remain. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was down to …

MAY 12, 2025 – FED MEETS, RATES REMAIN UNCHANGED The Fed met last week and continued to hold rates steady between 4.25 to 4.5 percent, where they have been since December. The uncertainty in the economic outlook was cited as the reason they are choosing to wait before lowering rates. The Fed is concerned that both inflation and the unemployment …

MAY 5, 2025 – GDP FALLS IN Q1 WHILE HIRING RISES IN APRIL Q1 2025 Gross Domestic Product fell at an annualized rate of 0.3 percent, largely due to a surge of imports before the tariffs came into effect. Imports were up 41.3 percent causing a temporary contraction in growth as imports are subtracted from the GDP. This was the …

APRIL 28, 2025 – CONSUMER SENTIMENT UP SLIGHTLY FROM MID-MONTH The Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 52.2 for April. Better than the reading of 50.8 two weeks ago, but still down from 57.0 in March. US consumer sentiment is down for a fourth straight month, primarily due to concerns about the economic impact of tariffs. Consumers are pessimistic about …

APRIL 21, 2025 – CONSUMER SENTIMENT DATA RELEASE FRIDAY A number of Federal Reserve Presidents are scheduled to speak this week.  But with all the uncertainty, they will not be able to give any definitive insight into the future. Instead, the focus this week will be on Friday, when the University of Michigan’s Sentiment Index will be released. This will …

APRIL 14, 2025 – UNCERTAINTY CAUSES CONSUMER SENTIMENT TO DIVE Rapidly changing decisions on tariffs have caused markets to whipsaw in the last weeks. As such, consumer sentiment has fallen to one of the lowest levels on record, as people have started to fear a recession as well as a steep increase in inflation. Americans’ inflation expectations for 2025 jumped …

APRIL 7, 2025 – HIRING UP IN MARCH, FED CHAIR WORRIES ABOUT TARIFFS Employers added 228,000 new jobs in March, better than expected in face of the unprecedented government layoffs and economic uncertainty. Economists predicted the addition of 140,000 positions. Job gains for January and February were revised lower, but the average monthly gain over the last 12-months was 158,000 …