DECEMBER 9, 2024 – JOBS RISE BY 227,000 IN NOVEMBER In better-than-expected news, the US economy added 227,000 new jobs in November, and the unemployment rate edged up slightly to 4.2 percent. Following this encouraging report, expectations have risen for the Fed to lower rates at their meeting on December 17-18. Jobs rebounded from October, when the economy only added …
December 2, 2024 — Federal Reserve Discussed Slowing Rate Cuts
DECEMBER 2, 2024 – FEDERAL RESERVE DISCUSSED SLOWING RATE CUTS In the release of the minutes of the Fed’s November meeting it was reported officials discussed the possibility of slowing down or pausing interest rate cuts if inflation does continue to drop. The data will have to show inflation is continuing to trend downward if rates are to move to …
November 25, 2024 — Where Will Rates Go in 2025
NOVEMBER 25, 2024 – WHERE WILL RATES GO IN 2025 The Fed’s last meeting of 2024 will take place on December 17-18. In the last few days, futures traders have become less certain there will be a rate cut, after it was a near certainty the week before. They are also pricing in three quarter-percent reductions in 2025, lower than …
November 18, 2024 — Inflation Edges Up in October
NOVEMBER 18, 2024 – INFLATION EDGES UP IN OCTOBER The Consumer Price Index moved up slightly in October to 2.6 percent. This was disappointing after the September CPI of 2.4 percent was the lowest in three and a half years. It seems the path to the Fed’s two percent target is anything but linear. Core prices were up 3.3 percent. …
November 11, 2024 — Rates Drop by 0.25 Percent
NOVEMBER 11, 2024 — RATES DROP BY 0.25 PERCENT The Federal Reserve met last week and cut rates by a quarter of a percent, as expected. The benchmark rate has now fallen into a range of 4.5 to 4.75 percent. There remains an expectation for a further similar cut to take place in December. Fed officials want to lower rates …
November 4, 2024 — Weak Jobs Report, PCE Up Marginally
NOVEMBER 4, 2024 – WEAK JOBS REPORT, PCE UP MARGINALLY Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting this week, the data pointed to a slowing economy. An abysmal jobs report was released Friday, showing the economy added only 12,000 jobs in October. It is not as dire as it seems; multiple mitigating factors, a strike at Boeing and two major hurricanes, …
October 28, 2024 — Slow Data Week Before the Election and Fed Meeting
OCTOBER 28, 2024 – SLOW DATA WEEK BEFORE THE ELECTION AND FED MEETING The next Federal Reserve meeting will take place November 6-7, the day after the US Presidential election. In the run up to the regularly scheduled meeting several significant data releases will be announced this week. These include the preliminary Q3 GDP, the core PCE which is the …
October 21, 2024 — Retail Sales Up, Job Claims Down in September
OCTOBER 21, 2024 – RETAIL SALES UP, JOB CLAIMS DOWN IN SEPTEMBER Retail sales in September were up 0.4 percent, beating expectations, and an improvement over the 0.1 percent rise in August. The economy seems to be holding its own as consumers keep spending. This is good news, as consumers are responsible for two-thirds of all economic activity in the …
October 14, 2024 — Inflation Slows in September
OCTOBER 14, 2024 – INFLATION SLOWS IN SEPTEMBER The US inflation was 2.4 percent annually for September, the lowest increase since inflation took off in 2021. Month over month prices were up 0.2 percent, the same as seen in August. Core inflation remained elevated, up 3.3 percent for the year, and up 0.3 percent from August. Overall, it seems inflation …
October 7, 2024 — Employment Rises in September
OCTOBER 7, 2024 – EMPLOYMENT RISES IN SEPTEMBER The US job market added 254,000 new jobs in September, the highest level of job growth in six months. The number is almost 100,000 more jobs than the 159,000 reported in August and far higher than expectations of 150,000 jobs. The unemployment rate for September was down 0.1 percent month over month …