OCTOBER 13, 2025 – – WORKERS RETURN TO PROVIDE KEY ECONOMIC DATA
The consumer price index for September is due out this week, and furloughed government workers have been called back in to the compile the data. It is expected to be released a week late on October 24, ahead of the Fed’s meeting set for October 28-29. The data will be critical in helping the Federal Reserve decide on whether to lower rates again this month.
The CPI number will also be used to calculate inflation in order to adjust Social Security checks for 2026. The cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security must, by law, be published by November 1. The estimated increase is 2.8 percent, but could be moved higher or lower, depending on the September data. The 6-month interest rate on government I-bonds is also recalculated on November 1.
Traders are currently betting, with over 90 percent certainty, rates will come down by 25 basis points at the end of the month, primarily driven by a weakening labor market.