NOVEMBER 15, 2021 — US INFLATION HITS 31-YEAR HIGH US inflation rose to 6.2 percent for October, while the corresponding core inflation index (excluding food and energy) was up 4.6 percent year over year.  This was the fastest 12-month pace since 1990 and the fifth month in a row inflation has exceeded 5 percent. Month over month, inflation increased by …

NOVEMBER 8, 2021 – FED ANNOUNCES TAPERING OF ASSET PURCHASES AS DATA IMPROVES At their meeting last week, the Fed’s policymakers announced changes to monetary policy starting later this month.  They will reduce bond purchases by $15 billion/month, $10 billion in treasuries and $5 billion in mortgage-backed securities. The move came “in light of substantial further progress the economy has …

NOVEMBER 1, 2021 – ECONOMIC GROWTH FALLS OFF IN Q3 The US economy grew at the slowest pace since mid-2020, at a seasonally adjusted rate of 2.0 percent, in the third quarter.  Economic growth was curtailed by the surge in the Delta variant of the virus and supply-chain issues; the first half of the year was driven by government stimulus …

OCTOBER 25, 2021 – ATLANTA FED PRESIDENT PREDICTS 2022 RATE HIKE Raphael Bostic, the President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, spoke Thursday to CNBC. He is anticipating a growing economy and lasting inflation will cause the Fed to raise rates in the “late third or early fourth” quarter of 2022. Bostic believes, as restrictions associated with covid are lifted, growth …

OCTOBER 18, 2021 – PRESSURE ON THE FED AS INFLATION RISES September’s inflation is up 5.4 percent year over year, the largest increase since 2008.  Prices are up 0.4 percent from August; while core inflation, excluding food and energy, was up 0.2 percent in September and 4 percent year to date, slightly below of a 30 year high of 4.5 …

OCTOBER 11, 2021 – JOBS NUMBERS DISAPPOINT WHILE UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS The US economy added 194,000 new jobs in September, the slowest gain of this year, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent as many workers stopped looking for work. The delta variant of the corona virus is putting a damper on economic growth.  The 194,000 new jobs are the …

OCTOBER 4, 2021 – SURGE IN SPENDING SIGNALS A SUSTAINED RECOVERY US consumer spending rose in August signaling the economy is picking up as we head into the fall and winter.  Spending on goods and services was up 0.8 percent in August after a 0.1 percent decline in July.  Personal income also rose in August by 0.2 percent as a …

SEPTEMBER 27, 2021 – THE FED SIGNALS TIMING OF FUTURE RATE HIKES At their meeting last week, the Federal Reserve signaled it could raise rates by 6-7 times by the end of 2024.  They are optimistic the covid pandemic will abate and the economy will improve substantially over the next few years.   They are still holding rates at zero for …

SEPTEMBER 20, 2021 – THE US ECONOMY IS SHOWING TOUGHNESS It seems the economy is not ready to cede to the delta variant of the virus that has taken hold.  Retail sales were up 0.7 percent in August, recovering from a drop in July. While initial jobless claims, up last week by 20,000, remain close to a pandemic low.  Some …

SEPTEMBER 13, 2021 – INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL TO LOWEST SINCE FEBRUARY 2020 Initial US jobless claims fell to a pandemic era low last week coming at 310,000.  The four-week average at 339,500 is also a pandemic low. This is good news, as it means employers are not laying off workers in light of the delta variant taking off across …