APRIL 15, 2019 – MARCH CPI BEATS EXPECTATIONS The Labor Department announced US consumer prices rose the most in 14-months, advancing 0.4 percent as a result of increases in the costs of food, gasoline and rents.  It was the biggest rise since January 2018, and doubled February’s gain of 0.2 percent.  However, underlying inflation remains low as the domestic and …

APRIL 8, 2019 – JOBS NUMBERS RISE IN MARCH, COULD FEBRUARY HAVE BEEN AN OUTLIER? After abysmal data in February, it looks like employment is back on track.  The US economy added only 33,000 jobs in February, but this month, 196,000 new jobs were created. This rebound in hiring could lift confidence in the economy as well as ease fears …

APRIL 1, 2019 – Q4 2018 GROWTH REVISED DOWN; Q1 2019 UNDER PRESSURE Final GDP numbers for the last quarter of 2018 were revised lower last week by 0.4 percent to 2.2 percent. The result was sizable enough to pull 2018 annual growth lower by 0.1 percent to 3.0 percent.  As the first quarter of this year has been slowing …

MARCH 25, 2019 – FED SUSPENDS RATE INCREASES FOR 2019 At their March monthly meeting, the Federal Reserve indicated they are unlikely to raise interest rates this year.  The news was not unexpected; in the last three months since the December rate hike, US economic growth has slowed as has global growth, inflation has not taken hold and, despite historically …

MARCH 18, 2019 – AS OIL PRICES TICK UP, INFLATION STARTS TO MOVE Oil prices have started to rally lately, which is starting to effect inflation expectations.  The inflationary news counters the slowdown in February hiring and the disappointing retail sales numbers at the end of 2018.  Inflation expectations have fallen in the last six months, which has become a …

MARCH 4, 2019 – Q4 2018 GDP BEATS EXPECTATIONS, BUT IT’S NOT TIME TO CELEBRATE YET US GDP for the last quarter of 2018 was finally released after a two-month delay caused by the partial government shutdown.  Economic growth came in better than expected, with GDP rosing 2.6 percent to close out the year.  Economists were expecting a gain of …

FEBRUARY 18, 2019 – INFLATION PRESSURE Core inflation finished out 2018 at 2.2 percent, 40 basis points higher than where it was 12-months earlier.  The expectations are for this acceleration in inflation to continue into 2019 as a result of above-trend economic growth and growing wage pressures. Labor scarcity has finally intensified and it is affecting wages. Should inflation in …

FEBRUARY 11, 2019 – ANALYSTS THINK RATES WILL STILL MOVE UP IN 2019 Bloomberg experts believe additional rate hikes are closer than we think.  Despite the Fed’s last statement, which put expectations for increases on hold, rising inflation expectations and growth trends pushing unemployment lower, wages higher and solid business fundamentals will drive rates up. Fundamentally the economy is sound, …

FEBRUARY 4, 2019 – POWELL CALLS FOR PATIENCE The Fed held the benchmark interest rate steady at its meeting last week.  No rate increase was expected, however, newsworthy was that the FOMC has become far more cautious regarding the pace of future rate increases. Fed Chair Powell said the “case for raising rates has weakened somewhat”; the direction of the …

JANUARY 28, 2019 – THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IS TEMPORARILY OVER President Trump succumbed to pressure on Friday and reopened the government for the next three weeks.  The longest shutdown in US history has ended, but there is a February 15 deadline to reach a deal with Congress, else the government will close again. Government offices are expected to open today, …