OCTOBER 22, 2018 – HURRICANE FLORENCE AFFECTS ECONOMIC DATA Housing starts and retail sales missed economists’ expectations for last month with the effects of Hurricane Florence evident in the data. US homebuilding fell in September, with activity in the South falling the most in nearly three years, likely due to hurricane effects.  Starts in the South, which account for most …

OCTOBER 15, 2018 – CPI RISES LESS THAN EXPECTED; INFLATION PRESSURE SUBSIDES US consumer prices rose less than expected in September with rental costs slowing and energy prices falling.   The CPI increased 0.1 percent last month after being up 0.2 percent in August.  For the running 12-months, CPI is up 2.3 percent, a slowdown from the 2.7 percent 12-month advance …

OCTOBER 8, 2018 – SEPTEMBER JOBS INCREASE FALLS SHORT DUE TO HURRICANE The big job news for September was the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent, the lowest since 1969.  With the Trump tax credits in play and a tight labor market, forecasters predict the unemployment rate will fall even further in the coming months. However, only 134,000 new jobs …

OCTOBER 1, 2018 – FED RAISES RATES BY 25 BPS, WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? As expected, the Fed, unanimously, raised rates a quarter of a percentage point last week; its eighth move since 2015; to the 2.0 to 2.2 percent range.  The question now remains: Where will rates go in 2019?  Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he will follow three factors …

SEPTEMBER 24, 2018 — THE FED IS RAISING RATES THIS WEEK The market says there is a 94 percent chance of a 25 basis point rate increase at the Fed meeting later this week.  The data supports the Fed’s decision.  The Dow Jones hit new highs last week, indicating the strengthening economy is not slowing down.  Economic output is growing …

SEPTEMBER 17, 2018 – UNDERLYING INFLATION PRESSURES EASED IN AUGUST The US Consumer Price Index increased 0.2 percent in August after a similar rise in July.  In the 12-months through August, the CPI is up 2.7 percent, down slightly from a 2.9 percent rise in July. As declines in healthcare and apparel costs offset rising rents and gasoline, it appears …

SEPTEMBER 10, 2018 – NEW JOBS CRUSH EXPECTATIONS AND WAGES TICK UP The US economy added 201,000 new jobs in August, crushing forecasts for 192,000.  The unemployment rate held steady at 3.9 percent, while average hourly wages were up 2.9 percent year-over-year, the fastest pace seen since mid-2009.  After the data was released, the US dollar surged, along with 10-year …

SEPTEMBER 4, 2018 – GOOD NEWS IN THE RUN UP TO THE UPCOMING FED MEETING Consumer confidence jumped in August to the highest levels seen since late 2000.  The number surged as a result of strength in the labor market and optimism rising from the high GDP growth rate experienced in Q2.  Income expectations jumped to the highest level since …

AUGUST 27, 2018 – JACKSON HOLE SYMPOSIUM HELD LAST WEEK During the annual economic gathering in Jackson Hole last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell defended the central bank’s strategy of gradually raising interest rates against criticisms that the central bank is moving either too quickly or too slowly, jeopardizing the economy’s expansion. Powell said rates can continue to rise, …

AUGUST 20, 2018 – ECONOMY HOLDS STEADY AS WE AWAIT A SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE The release of economic data last week is showing what we can expect for Q3 US economic growth expectations. July retail sales softened from Q2, but rising 0.5 percent versus an expected 0.1 percent increase. We can’t expect consumer spending to rise markedly until wage pressures …