AUGUST 20, 2018 – ECONOMY HOLDS STEADY AS WE AWAIT A SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE The release of economic data last week is showing what we can expect for Q3 US economic growth expectations. July retail sales softened from Q2, but rising 0.5 percent versus an expected 0.1 percent increase. We can’t expect consumer spending to rise markedly until wage pressures …

AUGUST 13, 2018 – SPECULATORS BOOST US DOLLAR STRENGTH The net long US dollar position climbed to the highest level seen since January of last year, as speculators were net long dollars for an eighth week in a row, after being short for 48 weeks. On Friday, the dollar hit a 13-month high amid tension in Turkey. The dollar’s position …

AUGUST 6, 2018 – 157,000 NEW JOBS CREATED Jobs growth backed off a bit in July with 157,000 new jobs added to the economy;  overall jobs situation remains solid.  Even though the number missed expectations for 190,000, numbers for May and June were revised upwards, resulting in a strong 224,000 jobs per month during the last 90 days. The unemployment …

JULY 30, 2018 – US ECONOMY CONTINUES TO FLY The US economy is growing at annual rate of 4.1%, this is the fastest pace experienced in four years. The last time the economy grew at a comparable pace was 2014, when it grew at 5.2% in the third quarter. All indications are the second-longest expansion on record is not yet …

JULY 16, 2018 – CONSUMER PRICES RISE 2.9 PERCENT IN 12 MONTHS Consumer prices rose negligibly in June, up 0.1 percent, but the 12-month CPI gain is the greatest experienced since February 2012.  The inflation trend is indicating a steady buildup of pressure that may keep the Federal Reserve on track for steady and gradual interest rate increases. The Labor …

JULY 9, 2018 – JOBS NUMBERS RISE, AS DOES THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE A healthy gain in payrolls for the month of June was not enough to keep the unemployment rate from rising slightly as more people entered the workforce. The US economy added 213,000 jobs last month, beating economists’ expectations of 195,000 new jobs.  The unemployment rate ticked up to …

JULY 2, 2018 – WORLD CURRENCIES RALLY AGAINST THE US DOLLAR As speculators increased bullish bets on the US dollar last week, many foreign currencies gained value against the greenback Friday.   The Euro jumped against the US dollar Friday as leaders reached a deal on migration.  The Euro gained the most in a month and Italian government bonds rose when …

JUNE 25, 2018 – ANALYSTS REACT TO THE FED’S SUGGESTION OF A DECEMBER RATE HIKE Last week at its policy meeting, the Fed signaled it intends to do two more rate hikes this year, one likely in September and an additional increase in December.  Following that announcement some skepticism has arisen regarding the likelihood of the fourth hike. A rate …

JUNE 18, 2018 – INTEREST RATES GO UP ANOTHER 25 BASIS POINTS The FOMC met Wednesday with all eight voting members agreeing to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percent to a range of 1.75-2.00 percent.  Rates are the highest since September 2008.  The Fed also signaled it intends to do two more hikes this year, instead of one.  …

JUNE 11, 2018 – A SLOW DATA WEEK ENDS; WE AWAIT NEWS FROM THE FOMC MEETING Many economists, both business and academic, are expecting Fed officials to lift rates at their policy meeting Wednesday.  The latest Wall Street Journal survey predicts a 100 percent probability of a rise being announced this week, a 83.9 percent probability of a third hike …