The Blog

DECEMBER 7, 2020 – NEW JOBS SLOW IN NOVEMBER The US economy added 245,000 job in November, missing expectations of 440,000 new jobs, and far less than the 610,000 jobs added in October. With the increase in new jobs, the unemployment rate fell from 6.9 percent in October to 6.7 percent. It is notable that the US economy added back …

NOVEMBER 30, 2020 – NEW DATA LACKS REASSURANCE In a holiday shortened week, little data was released, while the virus continued to grab the headlines.  New applications for jobless benefits rose to 778,000 last week, the second straight weekly increase since the summer. Household income was reported to have fallen 0.7 percent In October as federal aid programs expired. A …

NOVEMBER 23, 2020 – RETAIL SALES DISAPPOINT, IMPORT PRICES FALL US retail sales rose by only 0.3 percent in October, following a 1.3 percent increase in September. Economists are concerned they could slow further as virus cases keep rising and household income falls, as millions of unemployed Americans lose government financial support. As state governments impose restrictions and with people …

NOVEMBER 16, 2020 – FED CHAIR DELIVERS SOBERING NEWS Both Pfizer and Moderna recently announced their Covid vaccines are delivering better than expected results, but the challenge will be how to roll out the vaccines to get the world back to a new normal; while last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at a European Central Bank panel with ECB …

NOVEMBER 9, 2020 – UNEMPLOYMENT RATE BELOW 7 PERCENT; FED PREDICTS DIFFICULT MONTHS AHEAD The Labor Department reported on Friday the US added 638,000 jobs and the jobless rate fell to 6.9 percent in October. Both numbers beat expectations, as economists were looking for gains of 530,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 7.7 percent. October’s job gains were slightly …

NOVEMBER 2, 2020 – RECORD HIGH Q3 GDP REPORTED After its worst quarter ever, US GDP rebounded in Q3 at an annualized rate of 33.1 percent. For comparison, second quarter 2020 GDP fell 31.4 percent.  This should be a time to cheer, but with coronavirus infections hitting record levels worldwide, how the fourth quarter of this year will unfold is …

OCTOBER 26, 2020 – WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL BELOW 800K 757,000 workers filed initial claims for unemployment benefits last week, down 9 percent from a week earlier. It is an improvement, but the number is four times greater than initial claims filed for the same week a year ago. A total of 8 million people filed for benefits last week, …

OCTOBER 19, 2020 – MIXED DATA RELEASED; JOBLESS CLAIMS AND RETAIL SPENDING BOTH RISE Last week, initial filings for jobless claims rose to the highest level since August 22 at 898,000, up 53,000 from a week earlier. The labor market continues to struggle as the recovery is slow to take hold. Yet retail sales, the US economy’s biggest driver, rose …

OCTOBER 12, 2020 – YEARS OF LOW RATES ARE HAMPERING THE RECOVERY Last week, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren expressed concern, saying years of low interest rates led to excessive risk taking in commercial real estate and will make the current economic downturn worse.  He is expecting defaults and bankruptcies that will exacerbate the unemployment problem. Rosengren feels regulators should …

OCTOBER 5, 2020 – ECONOMIC DATA: THE GOOD WITH THE BAD Consumer confidence surged in September, its highest level since March.  Since the consumer is the driving force behind the US economy, higher confidence makes it more likely people will start spending, rather than saving, and the economy will pick up.  It’s felt there is a pent up demand for …