The Blog

OCTOBER 2, 2023 – PERSONAL CONSUMPTION INDEX SLOWS IN AUGUST The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption index, increased by 0.1 percent in August, lower than the 0.2 percent expected. For the running 12-months, the index is up 3.9 percent, as expected. The increase was the smallest since November 2020. The last time the core PCE was this low …

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023 – FED HOLDS RATES STEADY BUT WARNS RATES MAY RISE LATER THIS YEAR The Fed decided at their meeting last week to hold rates steady at a 22-year high, but signaled it is likely there will be one more rate hike before the end of the year. Twelve of nineteen Fed officials favor an additional rate hike. …

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023 – INFLATION IS UP FOR AUGUST; FED MEET THIS WEEK The CPI rose at the greatest pace in more than a year in August with a 0.6 percent increase from July.  More than half the increase was due to a rise in gasoline prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, was up 0.3 percent. On annual …

SEPTEMBER 11, 2023 – THE EU AND CANADA HOLD RATES STEADY THIS MONTH The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady at their meeting this Thursday, and economists are split as to whether there will be one more hike before the end of the year.  Economic activity in the 20-nation union has slowed under the rate rise …

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023 – JOB GROWTH SLOWS IN OVER THE SUMMER The labor market has started to cool as the effects of higher interest rates are beginning to affect the economy. A robust 187,000 new jobs were added in August, yet the July jobs number was revised down by 30,000 to 157,000 while June’s number fell by 80,000 to 105,000. …

AUGUST 28, 2023 – POWELL WARNS RATES MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER At the annual Jackson Hole Symposium last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed is prepared to raise rates higher if appropriate and will maintain high rates until they believe inflation is moving toward their targeted 2 percent. Powell pointed out inflation has moved down from its …

AUGUST 21, 2023 – FED’S ANNUAL JACKSON HOLE ECONOMIC SUMMIT THIS WEEK Fed Chair Powell will speak about the Fed’s intentions at the annual Jackson Hole economic conference this week. Powell is expected to give his latest opinion whether more policy tightening will be needed to bring down inflation, or if it will be reasonable for the Fed to hold …

AUGUST 12, 2023 – INFLATION RISES 3.2 PERCENT IN JULY Annual inflation for the month of July was reported at 3.2 percent, up slightly from the 3 percent reported in June. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was up 4.7 percent, down slightly from June’s 4.8 percent. If we look at the monthly increases, both the CPI and the core …

AUGUST 7, 2023 – 185,000 NEW JOBS ADDED IN JULY The July jobs report was released last week which reported the addition of 187,000 new jobs to the US economy. The number was slightly ahead of the 185,000 new jobs reported in June. The unemployment rate fell from 3.6 percent to 3.5 percent, while average hourly wages were up 0.4 …

JULY 31, 2023 – INTEREST RATES RISE 0.25 PERCENT As anticipated, the Fed raised rates by 0.25 percent at their meeting last week, the 11th increase since March 2022. Rates are now at their highest level in 22 years. Fed officials say there could be another 0.25 percent rate increase later this year as the Fed continues to target inflation …