MAY 8, 2023 – RATES RISE BY 0.25 PERCENT FOLLOWED BY A STRONG APRIL JOB REPORT Last week the Federal Reserve approved a tenth rate hike in a little over a year, when they announced a 0.25 percentage point increase in the benchmark Federal Funds rate, which now ranges between 5 and 5.25 percent. This is the highest it’s been …
May 1, 2023 — GDP Up 1.1 Percent, PCE Up 4.2 Percent ahead of Fed Meeting
MAY 1, 2023 – GDP UP 1.1 PERCENT, PCE UP 4.2 PERCENT AHEAD OF FED MEETING US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 1.1 percent for the first quarter of 2023, less than half of the 2.6 percent seen in the fourth quarter of 2022. Analysts had been expecting GDP growth of 2 percent. Consumer prices rose slightly last …
April 17, 2023 — Inflation Falls for the Ninth Month in a Row
APRIL 17, 2023 – INFLATION FALLS FOR THE NINTH MONTH IN A ROW TO 5 PERCENT US Inflation rose 0.1 percent in March and is up 5 percent from a year ago, with the data coming in below analyst expectations. 5 percent is the smallest 12-month increase in nearly two years. The March figure marks the ninth consecutive year-over-year decline …
April 10, 2023 — Hiring Slows Down
APRIL 10, 2023 – HIRING SLOWS DOWN The US economy added 236,000 jobs in March, down from 326,000 jobs in February. The growth was the lowest monthly gain since December 2020. The unemployment rate is now 3.5 percent, down 0.1 percent from February. Average hourly earnings are up 0.3 percent month-over-month and 4.2 percent year-over-year. The wage gains are the …
April 3, 2023 — PCE Inflation Down in February
APRIL 3, 2023 – PCE INFLATION DOWN IN FEBRUARY The Fed’s key inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), was released last week. It is up 0.3 percent in February, below expectations for 0.4 percent, and down from January’s 0.5 percent increase. On a 12-month basis, the PCE increased 4.6 percent, slightly below the level seen in January. Energy prices were …
March 27, 2023 — Fed Raises Rates by 25 bps Despite Banking Turmoil
MARCH 27, 2023 – FED RAISES RATES BY 25 BPS DESPITE BANKING TURMOIL At their scheduled meeting last week, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25 percent, its ninth consecutive increase. The rate hike was half the increase the Fed had been instituting lately, but some had been expecting no increase due to the current uncertainty in the banking sector. …
March 20, 2023 — Bank Collapse May Divert Fed’s Interest Rate Plans
MARCH 20, 2023 – BANK COLLAPSE MAY DIVERT FED’S INTEREST RATE PLANS A financial crisis was seen to be one way the Fed would put a halt on interest rate increases, and the recent collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank may just be that crisis. Investors are now worrying about how turmoil in the US banking sector could damage the …
March 13, 2023 — Job Strength Continues as Fed Says Rates may have to Rise Higher
MARCH 13, 2023 – JOB STRENGTH CONTINUES AS FED SAYS RATES MAY HAVE TO RISE HIGHER The US economy added 311,000 new jobs in February in the face of despite slowing economic growth and rising interest rates. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6 percent from 3.4 percent in January. The increase is attributable to more people entering the job market. …
March 6, 2023 — Jobless Claims Fall; Labor Market Remains Strong
MARCH 6, 2023 – JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL; LABOR MARKET REMAINS STRONG The US labor market is showing resilience despite the rising risk of a recession. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week; it’s the seventh week in a row claims remained below 200,000. This sustained labor market strength, along with growth in wages, raises concerns the Fed will keep …
February 27, 2023 — Fed Board of Governors’ Meeting
FEBRUARY 27, 2023 – FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ MEETING The Fed’s Board of Governors met a week ago to discuss monetary policy. One message that was sent was that a recession is not a certainty. They point to four reasons the current economic situation differs from pre-recessionary periods in the past. They are the “unprecedented” disruption to supply chains since …