DECEMBER 1, 2025 – – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND PRIVATE PAYROLLS FALL
The Consumer Confidence Index for November fell to its lowest level since April, missing economists’ expectations. Those surveyed expressed concern about finding work and the economy in general. Consumers’ inflation expectations in the report rose to 4.8 percent.
In a separate release, ADP, the payroll processing company, said private companies lost an average of 13,500 jobs per week over the last four weeks. The numbers signify an acceleration in the pace of layoffs and indicate a weakening labor market.
Other data releases, delayed due to the shutdown, before the holiday weekend showed a slight slowdown in retail sales in September, while producer prices came in stable for the month.
Given the consumer slowdown, pessimistic outlook and weakening labor market, there is now a 83 percent chance the Fed will lower interest rates next week by 25 basis points.