JULY 8, 2024 – SOLID JUNE JOB REPORT; FED MEETING MINUTES RELEASED
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released June’s labor data on Friday. The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percent to 4.1 percent, it’s the first time since November 2021 it’s been over 4 percent. 206,000 new jobs were added last month, the 42nd consecutive month of job growth. Wage fell to 3.9 percent year-over-year from 4.1 percent in May, the smallest annual increase since May 2021, but it’s still ahead of inflation.
Earlier in the week, the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting were released last week after the usual 3-week delay. The minutes show the officials continue to agree with their wait-and-see approach to monetary policy. They are satisfied with the direction inflation is taking and feel they should be ready to respond to any unexpected economic weaknesses, especially in the labor market. This suggests a September rate cut is a possibility if data keeps trending in the same direction.
Economists anticipate one, perhaps, two interest cuts in 2024.