MARCH 16, 2026 – – PRICES RISE MODERATELY IN FEBRUARY, BUT THEN THERE WAS A WAR
Consumer prices in February rose by 2.4 percent year-over-year, the same as in January, the lowest in five years. Core prices rose 2.5 percent. But this data was collected before the February 28 attack on Iran, which has sent gas prices soaring.
Rising oil prices will likely worsen inflation for months, even if the war comes to an end soon. It could also slow consumer spending, which is the primary driver of economic growth in the US. Fuel prices are expected to be up as much as 20 percent in March, the highest they’ve been in four years.
On a monthly basis, prices were up 0.3 percent in February, up 0.1 percent month-over month. Core prices moved up 0.2 percent, down from 0.3 percent in January. Core prices will start rising as the effects of higher gas prices start to affect all sectors of the economy.
The thoughts are, even if this spike is short lived, it will delay The Fed from cutting interest rates. Inflation has been running well above the 2 percent target, yet the labor market has shown signs of weakening. For the Fed, this is a worst-case scenario. The more uncertainty they face, the less likely they will change the status quo.