OCTOBER 31, 2022 – DATA RELEASES KEEP THE FED ON TRACK FOR A RATE HIKE THIS WEEK US wages rose in the third quarter by 5 percent, putting more pressure on the Fed to raise rates again this week. The increase is a slight cool down from the second quarter, but not enough to indicate a slowing labor market. Household …

OCTOBER 24, 2022 – FED MEETING NEXT WEEK WITH 0.75 PERCENT INCREASE EXPECTED The Fed will meet on November 1-2 when a 75-basis point rate increase is a near certainty. The markets are waiting to hear the possible magnitude of the Fed’s increase for December, with hopes for a lesser 50-basis points rise. Some Fed officials have been suggesting they …

OCTOBER 17, 2022 – INFLATION REMAINS HIGH THROUGH SEPTEMBER September inflation was up 0.4 percent month-over-month and up 8.2 percent year-over-year. This is down from 9 percent in June, but still close to the highest levels experienced since the early 1980’s.  The news puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates to stabilize prices. The core consumer …

OCTOBER 10, 2022 – JOBS REPORT STAYS STRONG, FED’S STRATEGY UNCHANGED The Fed cautioned markets last week that signs of a weakening economy will not indicate the need to cuts rates next year. The Fed intends to keep raising rates and holding them until inflation is under control. A better-than-expected September jobs report did not indicate the labor market is …

OCTOBER 3, 2022 – CONSUMER SPENDING HOLDS DESPITE INFLATION Household spending rose by 0.4 percent in August after being down 0.2 percent in July. The personal consumption index rose 6.2 percent year over year in August, down from a 6.4 percent increase in July.  Core PCE (excluding food and energy) was up 4.9 percent year over year, up from a …

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022 — FED INSTITUTES ANOTHER AGGRESSIVE RATE HIKE The Federal Reserve raised rates by another 0.75 percent last week, the third 0.75 percent raise in a row as the Fed tries to tame inflation.  The Fed expects its terminal-rate, or end point, to reach 4.6 percent in 2023, and indicated they plan to stay aggressive, with rates expected …

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022 – INFLATION REMAINS HIGH FORCING THE FED TO ACT The rate of inflation slowed in August for the second straight month, but it is still high at 8.3 percent year-over-year. Prices were up 0.1 percent from July. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, exceeded expectations coming in up 6.3 percent year-over-year and 0.6 percent from July. …

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022 – FED EXPECTED TO RAISE RATES ANOTHER 0.75 PERCENT NEXT WEEK The Fed is on the path to raise rates by 0.75 percent this month at their September 20-21 meeting. According to the CME Group, there is a 75 percent probability that rates will go up by that much.  Powell’s August speech at Jackson Hole indicated he …

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022 – SOLID JOBS REPORT FOR AUGUST The US showed respectable job growth in August adding 315,000 new jobs. However, the unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percent to 3.7 percent, while hourly wages were up 5.2 percent year-over-year in August. Even though the unemployment rate rose a bit, attributable to a rise in the labor force participation rate, …

AUGUST 29, 2022 – POWELL SPEAKS AT JACKSON HOLE; RATES STILL TO RISE Citing the inflation experience 40 years ago, Fed Chair Powell spoke of the Fed’s intentions at the annual Jackson Hole economic conference. There are three lessons to heed: The Fed is responsible for managing inflation, expectations are critical, and they must keep at it until the job …