APRIL 21, 2025 – CONSUMER SENTIMENT DATA RELEASE FRIDAY A number of Federal Reserve Presidents are scheduled to speak this week.  But with all the uncertainty, they will not be able to give any definitive insight into the future. Instead, the focus this week will be on Friday, when the University of Michigan’s Sentiment Index will be released. This will …

APRIL 14, 2025 – UNCERTAINTY CAUSES CONSUMER SENTIMENT TO DIVE Rapidly changing decisions on tariffs have caused markets to whipsaw in the last weeks. As such, consumer sentiment has fallen to one of the lowest levels on record, as people have started to fear a recession as well as a steep increase in inflation. Americans’ inflation expectations for 2025 jumped …

APRIL 7, 2025 – HIRING UP IN MARCH, FED CHAIR WORRIES ABOUT TARIFFS Employers added 228,000 new jobs in March, better than expected in face of the unprecedented government layoffs and economic uncertainty. Economists predicted the addition of 140,000 positions. Job gains for January and February were revised lower, but the average monthly gain over the last 12-months was 158,000 …

MARCH 31, 2025 – US GDP UP BY 2.4 PERCENT IN Q4 2024 The US economy grew by 2.4 percent in the last quarter of 2024, buoyed by consumer spending. For the entire year, GDP grew by 2.8 percent, down slightly from the 2.9 percent growth in 2023. The report also showed the personal consumption index rose at an annualized …

MARCH 24, 2025 – FED MEETS, RATES REMAIN UNCHANGED The Federal Reserve met last week and kept interest rates at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, reaffirming plans for two rate cuts in 2025, targeting a rate of 3.75 to 4 percent by year-end. GDP growth projections for 2025 were lowered to 1.7 percent (from 2.1 percent in December), with 2025 core …

MARCH 17, 2025 – INFLATION COOLS AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS Inflation cooled to 2.8 percent in February, down from a 3 percent annualized rate in January, slightly below expectations. The joy may be short lived, as tariffs are threatening to create uncertainty and raise prices in the upcoming months. To that, consumer sentiment fell almost 10 percent in February, and …

MARCH 10, 2025 – 151,000 JOBS CREATED IN FEBRUARY The Labor Department reported that 151,000 new jobs were added in February; this was the 50th week of job growth. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1 percent from 4 percent in January, remaining just above record lows. Average hourly wages were up 0.3 percent for the month, as expected, or 4 …

MARCH 3, 2025 – Q4 DATA UPDATES, JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE Last week key indicators were updated, giving a clearer picture of the economy. Fourth quarter real GDP was unrevised at 2.3 percent, following a strong 3.1 percent expansion in Q3; the number was robust enough to indicate solid momentum going into 2025.  Consumer spending was up 4.2 percent in Q4, …

FEBRUARY 24, 2025 – TRACKING ECONOMIC DATA THIS WEEK There will be a number of important data released this week, including an update to fourth quarter GDP, durable goods and core PCE data. Expectations are for a slight revision down to the GDP from the 2.3 percent in the original release. The core PCE, the number the Fed considers its …

FEBRUARY 17, 2025 – INFLATION RISES TO 3 PERCENT IN JANUARY Consumer prices rose in January by 0.5 percent, which translates to a 12-month increase of 3 percent. This was the largest increase since August 2023 and ahead of expectations for a rise of 0.3 percent. The January data has likely ended hopes for an interest rate adjustment in the …