NOVEMBER 20, 2023 — RETAIL SALES DECLINE FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH October retail sales fell for the first time since March, down 0.1 percent from September when sales rose 0.9 percent. The average gain during the last six months was 0.6 percent. The decline in consumer spending bodes well for inflation, reinforcing hopes for a soft landing. Consumers …

NOVEMBER 13, 2023 – POWELL REMAINS CAUTIOUS ABOUT INFLATION GOING INTO 2024 A week after the Federal Reserve’s meeting, Chair Jerome Powell spoke to the International Monetary Fund. Powell said he and his colleagues at the Fed are pleased to see inflation slowing, but they remain unsure if they have done enough. Powell said inflation is “well above” where the …

NOVEMBER 6, 2023 – FED HOLDS RATES STEADY AS ECONOMY SLOWS As predicted, the Fed did not change interest rates at their meeting last week, keeping rates in the range of 5.25 to 5.5 percent. The Fed slightly changed their view, stating “economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter”, while previously they said the economy was …

OCTOBER 30, 2023 – Q3 GDP GROWS AT ITS FASTEST PACE IN ALMOST 2 YEARS The US economy grew at a strong 4.9 percent in the third quarter, largely driven by consumer spending. This was the fastest pace since late 2021 and double the rate of the second quarter. The data will not change the Fed’s plans for the upcoming …

OCTOBER 23, 2023 – PLEASED WITH INFLATION DATA, FED SAYS NO RATE HIKE THIS WEEK Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated last week it is unlikely rates will move again in 2023. He is pleased with the direction of inflation growth as higher rates work their way through the economy. As such, the Fed will hold short-term rates steady at the …

OCTOBER 16, 2023 – INFLATION EASES TO 3.7 PERCENT IN SEPTEMBER Prices rose 3.7 percent, on an annual basis, for the second month in a row. Though inflation is down from a year ago, it is still running at close to double the Feds targeted 2 percent. On a monthly basis, inflation is up 0.4 percent in September versus 0.6 …

OCTOBER 9, 2023 – US JOB GROWTH ROCKETS IN SEPTEMBER The US economy added 336,000 new jobs in September, almost double the expectation for 170,000 jobs, and well ahead of the upwardly revised 227,000 (+40,000) new jobs added in August and 236,000 (+89,000) in July. The September increase is the largest since January 2023. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2 …

OCTOBER 2, 2023 – PERSONAL CONSUMPTION INDEX SLOWS IN AUGUST The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, the personal consumption index, increased by 0.1 percent in August, lower than the 0.2 percent expected. For the running 12-months, the index is up 3.9 percent, as expected. The increase was the smallest since November 2020. The last time the core PCE was this low …

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023 – FED HOLDS RATES STEADY BUT WARNS RATES MAY RISE LATER THIS YEAR The Fed decided at their meeting last week to hold rates steady at a 22-year high, but signaled it is likely there will be one more rate hike before the end of the year. Twelve of nineteen Fed officials favor an additional rate hike. …

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023 – INFLATION IS UP FOR AUGUST; FED MEET THIS WEEK The CPI rose at the greatest pace in more than a year in August with a 0.6 percent increase from July.  More than half the increase was due to a rise in gasoline prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, was up 0.3 percent. On annual …