The Blog

MARCH 30, 2026 – – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS WITH WAR Consumer confidence in March hit a three-month low as fears about the war increased uncertainties about rising inflation and the economic outlook. With oil prices up over 50 percent in the last month, consumer spending has weakened along with the stock market; this, with the labor market slowing, expectations for …

MARCH 23, 2026 – – FED HOLDS RATES STEADY AS THE WAR CREATES UNCERTAINTY Federal Reserve officials voted 11 to 1 to keep rates in a range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent last week. This is the second meeting in a row with no change. They indicated rates may come down later this year despite the rising oil prices …

MARCH 16, 2026 – – PRICES RISE MODERATELY IN FEBRUARY, BUT THEN THERE WAS A WAR Consumer prices in February rose by 2.4 percent year-over-year, the same as in January, the lowest in five years. Core prices rose 2.5 percent. But this data was collected before the February 28 attack on Iran, which has sent gas prices soaring. Rising oil …

MARCH 9, 2026 – – JOB LOSSES IN FEBRUARY, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February, much different than the expected 50,000 job gains, while January’s payrolls were revised downward to 126,000 new jobs from 130,000 initially reported. This is the third time in the past five months that payrolls declined. The unemployment rate rose to …

MARCH 2, 2026 – – JANUARY PRODUCER PRICES RISE Unexpectedly robust pricing data was released last week by the Labor Department last week. US producer prices rose by 0.5 percent in January, while the core PPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.7 percent. The core PPI is at its highest level in over 3.5 years as tariffs were passed …

FEBRUARY 23, 2026 – – Q4 GDP DISAPPOINTS The US GDP for the last quarter of 2025 grew at 1.4 percent, slower than the expectations for 2.9 percent.  The underperformance is attributed to the 45-day government shutdown in November and a deceleration in consumer spending.  The US economy grew by 2.2 percent in 2025, down from 2.8 percent growth in …

FEBRUARY 16, 2026 – – STRONG JOBS REPORT FOR JANUARY, INFLATION EASES The Labor Department reported January’s hiring and employment data, as well as the latest inflation data. The releases were delayed due to the partial government shutdown There were 130,000 new jobs created in January, above expectations of 70,000 new positions, and well above the 50,000 reported in December. …

FEBRUARY 9, 2026 – – JOBS REPORT DELAYED DUE TO PARTIAL SHUTDOWN The release of January’s hiring and employment data and the inflation report were delayed until this week due to the partial government shutdown. Expectations are for an increase of 70,000 new positions, up from the 50,000 reported in December. Meanwhile, short term consumer inflation expectations have moderated to …

FEBRUARY 2, 2026 – – FED MEETS, RATES REMAIN UNCHANGED The Federal Reserve met last week and held rates steady. They remain in the range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. The FOMC stated there is no urgency to resume rate cuts considering stronger economic growth and labor market stability. The general sentiment is, unless there are signals of the …

JANUARY 26, 2026 – – NOVEMBER’S PCE COMES IN AT 2.8 PERCENT The personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve’s main inflation gauge, for November was reported at 2.8 percent. The data was in line with expectations but remains above the Fed’s target of 2 percent. The PCE increased by 0.2 percent for both October and November. Data for both months …