APRIL 3, 2023 – PCE INFLATION DOWN IN FEBRUARY The Fed’s key inflation gauge, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), was released last week. It is up 0.3 percent in February, below expectations for 0.4 percent, and down from January’s 0.5 percent increase. On a 12-month basis, the PCE increased 4.6 percent, slightly below the level seen in January. Energy prices were …
March 27, 2023 — Fed Raises Rates by 25 bps Despite Banking Turmoil
MARCH 27, 2023 – FED RAISES RATES BY 25 BPS DESPITE BANKING TURMOIL At their scheduled meeting last week, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25 percent, its ninth consecutive increase. The rate hike was half the increase the Fed had been instituting lately, but some had been expecting no increase due to the current uncertainty in the banking sector. …
March 20, 2023 — Bank Collapse May Divert Fed’s Interest Rate Plans
MARCH 20, 2023 – BANK COLLAPSE MAY DIVERT FED’S INTEREST RATE PLANS A financial crisis was seen to be one way the Fed would put a halt on interest rate increases, and the recent collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank may just be that crisis. Investors are now worrying about how turmoil in the US banking sector could damage the …
March 13, 2023 — Job Strength Continues as Fed Says Rates may have to Rise Higher
MARCH 13, 2023 – JOB STRENGTH CONTINUES AS FED SAYS RATES MAY HAVE TO RISE HIGHER The US economy added 311,000 new jobs in February in the face of despite slowing economic growth and rising interest rates. The unemployment rate rose to 3.6 percent from 3.4 percent in January. The increase is attributable to more people entering the job market. …
March 6, 2023 — Jobless Claims Fall; Labor Market Remains Strong
MARCH 6, 2023 – JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL; LABOR MARKET REMAINS STRONG The US labor market is showing resilience despite the rising risk of a recession. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week; it’s the seventh week in a row claims remained below 200,000. This sustained labor market strength, along with growth in wages, raises concerns the Fed will keep …
February 27, 2023 — Fed Board of Governors’ Meeting
FEBRUARY 27, 2023 – FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS’ MEETING The Fed’s Board of Governors met a week ago to discuss monetary policy. One message that was sent was that a recession is not a certainty. They point to four reasons the current economic situation differs from pre-recessionary periods in the past. They are the “unprecedented” disruption to supply chains since …
February 20, 2023 — Inflation Cools for Seventh Month in a Row
FEBRUARY 20, 2023 – INFLATION COOLS FOR SEVENTH MONTH IN A ROW Consumer prices were up 6.4 percent in January – the seventh straight month of cooling – down from the high of 9.1 percent reported in June. Fed Chair Jerome Powell thinks inflation is on the right track, but to get it down to the Fed’s targeted 2 percent …
February 13, 2023 –Powell Says Inflation is Difficult to Tame
FEBRUARY 13, 2023 – POWELL SAYS INFLATION IS DIFFICULT TO TAME Last week at the Economic Club of Washington DC, Fed Chair Powell said the strong labor market will make bringing inflation down longer and will require higher interest rates than many have been expecting. The latest government data showed unexpected strength in the labor market. Not only were the …
February 6, 2023 –Fed Lifts Rates by 25 bps; Scorching Jobs Report Follows
FEBRUARY 6, 2023 – FED LIFTS RATES BY 25 BPS; SCORCHING JOBS REPORT FOLLOWS The Fed slowed its pace of interest rate hikes by raising rates by 0.25 percent last week to a range of 4.5 to 4.75 percent (highest since 2007) as it tries to cool down the economy and slow down inflation. This was the smallest increase the …
January 30, 2023 — GDP Slows Along with Consumer Spending
JANUARY 30, 2023 – GDP SLOWS ALONG WITH CONSUMER SPENDING US GDP rose by 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022, down slightly from the 3.2 percent in Q3. The slowdown marks a return to a more normal rate of growth after surging in 2021 after the pandemic. The economy is showing signs of weakening with retail sales falling …