Category Archive

OCTOBER 6, 2025 – – GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN PREEMPTS DATA RELEASES With the federal government at a stalemate, the departments that release the latest economic data have been temporarily closed. We were expecting the September jobs report on Friday, which was forecasted to show growth of 51,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate was expected to be unchanged at 4.3 percent. …

SEPTEMBER 29, 2025 – – AUGUST DATA SOLID, RATES STILL EXPECTED TO COME DOWN With inflation still well above the targeted 2 percent; the PCE reported at 2.7 percent for the 12-months ending in August; it is still likely rates will move down at least once more this year. The economy is holding its own despite the tariffs, which are …

SEPTEMBER 22, 2025 – – RATES DOWN BY 25 BPS, FED HINTS AT TWO MORE REDUCTIONS The Federal Reserve reduced rates by a quarter-percent last week, lowering the benchmark interest rate in the range of 4 to 4.25 percent, the lowest level in almost three years. It marks the first time rates have changed in 2025. The decision to adjust …

SEPTEMBER 15, 2025 – – FEWER JOBS, INFLATION AT 2.9 PERCENT The labor market in 2024 and 2025 has been weaker than previously reported. The Bureau of Labor Statistics put out its largest revision ever recorded, dropping the number of new jobs created between March 2024 and 2025 by 911,000. Later in the week it was reported that inflation rose …

SEPTEMBER 8, 2025 – – JOBS NUMBERS WEAKEN The Department of Labor released August job numbers on Friday. The data has likely given the Fed the push to cut rates next week. The US economy added only 22,000 jobs in August, below expectations for 75,000 new positions. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percent to 4.3 percent. The Department revised …

SEPTEMBER 2, 2025 – – Q2 GDP ADJUSTED HIGHER The Commerce Department released updated GDP numbers for the second quarter which showed the US economy grew at 3.3 percent, rather than the 3 percent originally reported. Revisions to investment and consumer spending drove the increase. The US economy shrank by 0.5 percent in the first quarter as businesses stocked up …

AUGUST 25, 2025 – – FOMC JACKSON HOLE CONFERENCE The annual Jackson Hole conference took place last week where Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that an interest rate cut is possible in September.  He did note the high level of uncertainty (tax, trade and immigration), which is leading to caution within the decision-making process.  “The balance of risks appear to …

AUGUST 18, 2025 – JULY CPI HOLDS STEADY AT 2.7 PERCENT July’s Consumer Price Index came in at an annualized 2.7 percent, the same as recorded in June, and below market expectations for a 2.8 percent increase. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.3 percent for the month, or 3.1 percent for the year. Forecasts were for 0.3 …

AUGUST 11, 2025 – JULY CPI DATA RELEASED THIS WEEK The Consumer Price Index for July will be released this week. Economists are predicting the Trump tariffs will be pushing inflation higher. The full impact of the tariffs have yet to be felt by US consumers as some of the inventories that are being depleted were stocked before import pricing …

AUGUST 4, 2025 – RATES REMAIN UNCHANGED, TWO GOVERNORS DISSENT As expected, there was no change in interest rates at the Federal Reserve meeting last week. Fed Chair Powell said they need to see the impact tariffs will have on the economy before taking action. Unusually, the decision was not unanimous. Fed Chairs Waller and Bowman disagreed; it was the …