Category Archive

MAY 13, 2024 – CONSUMERS UNEASY AS LABOR MARKET SHOWS SIGNS OF SLOWING It was a busy data week. Consumer sentiment numbers were announced, showing a one month decline of 12.7 percent. The one-year inflation outlook rose to 3.5 percent up 0.3 percent month-over-month and is at the highest level since November 2023. Weekly jobless claims rose to the highest …

MAY 6, 2024 – FED MEETS: RATES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR NOW Due to inflation remaining stubbornly high in recent months, the Fed said it doesn’t plan on lowering interest rates until it has “greater confidence” that inflation is approaching the 2 percent target. The news was not a surprise. Rates are at a 23-year high. The Fed believes rates …

APRIL 29, 2024 – PCE UP 2.8 PERCENT; Q1 2024 GDP UP 1.6 PERCENT The core personal consumption index, excluding food and energy, rose 2.8 percent from a year ago, up month-over-month by 0.3 percent, a bit higher than expected. The PCE is the key inflation indicator tracked by the Fed. Investors were relieved the number was not higher, but …

APRIL 22, 2024 – POWELL SAYS FIRM INFLATION MAY DERAIL RATE 2024 CUTS As inflation did not ease during the first quarter, the Federal Reserve is now unsure they can deliver the anticipated interest rate cuts this year, unless an economic slowdown occurs. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments last week signal a change in the Fed’s outlook, effectively closing the …

APRIL 15, 2024 – MARCH INFLATION AT 3.5 PERCENT, JUNE RATE CUT UNLIKELY Inflation remains persistent with consumer prices rising 3.5 percent in March, a pick-up from 3.2 percent in February. This was the third straight month inflation surpassed expectations. With inflation remaining firm, it’s becoming unlikely the Fed will lower rates soon. The Fed’s inflation target is 2 percent. …

APRIL 8, 2024 – 303,000 JOBS ADDED IN MARCH, UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS TO 3.8 PERCENT The US economy added 303,000 jobs in March, beating expectations for 200,000 jobs. The unemployment rate was down 0.1 percent from February to 3.8 percent. Average hourly earnings in March were up 4.1 percent from a year earlier, the smallest annual gain since June 2021. A …

APRIL 1, 2024 – CORE PCE INFLATION INDEX UP 2.8 PERCENT IN FEBRUARY The Fed’s favored inflation measure, the core personal consumption expenditures index (excluding food and energy), increased 0.3 percent in February, or 2.8 percent on a 12-month basis. The data came was as expected. The PCE is seen to be a good gauge of long-term inflation pressures. The …

MARCH 25, 2024 – THE FED MEETS, ANTICIPATES THREE RATE CUTS IN 2024 The Federal Reserve had their regularly scheduled meeting last week. As expected, they chose to leave interest rates unchanged, and said interest rates will come down later this year as inflation cools. The Fed remains wary about rebound inflation and until inflation seems to be tamed, rates …

MARCH 18, 2024 — FED’S CAUTION ON RATES JUSTFIED AS INFLATION PICKS UP IN FEBRUARY Inflation remained persistent as consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in February, up from 0.3 percent in January. Compared to a year ago, prices were up 3.2 percent, ahead of January’s 3.1 percent annual pace. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, were up 0.4 percent …

MARCH 11, 2024 – 275,000 NEW JOBS ADDED IN FEBRUARY The US economy added 275,000 jobs in February, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent, up from 3.7 percent in January. The numbers beat analysts’ expectations of 200,000 new jobs. The Labor Department’s report adjusted down the December new jobs to 290,000 (-43K) and January’s to 229,000 (-124K) from …