The Blog

MARCH 24, 2025 – FED MEETS, RATES REMAIN UNCHANGED The Federal Reserve met last week and kept interest rates at 4.25 to 4.5 percent, reaffirming plans for two rate cuts in 2025, targeting a rate of 3.75 to 4 percent by year-end. GDP growth projections for 2025 were lowered to 1.7 percent (from 2.1 percent in December), with 2025 core …

MARCH 17, 2025 – INFLATION COOLS AND CONSUMER SENTIMENT FALLS Inflation cooled to 2.8 percent in February, down from a 3 percent annualized rate in January, slightly below expectations. The joy may be short lived, as tariffs are threatening to create uncertainty and raise prices in the upcoming months. To that, consumer sentiment fell almost 10 percent in February, and …

MARCH 10, 2025 – 151,000 JOBS CREATED IN FEBRUARY The Labor Department reported that 151,000 new jobs were added in February; this was the 50th week of job growth. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1 percent from 4 percent in January, remaining just above record lows. Average hourly wages were up 0.3 percent for the month, as expected, or 4 …

MARCH 3, 2025 – Q4 DATA UPDATES, JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE Last week key indicators were updated, giving a clearer picture of the economy. Fourth quarter real GDP was unrevised at 2.3 percent, following a strong 3.1 percent expansion in Q3; the number was robust enough to indicate solid momentum going into 2025.  Consumer spending was up 4.2 percent in Q4, …

FEBRUARY 24, 2025 – TRACKING ECONOMIC DATA THIS WEEK There will be a number of important data released this week, including an update to fourth quarter GDP, durable goods and core PCE data. Expectations are for a slight revision down to the GDP from the 2.3 percent in the original release. The core PCE, the number the Fed considers its …

FEBRUARY 17, 2025 – INFLATION RISES TO 3 PERCENT IN JANUARY Consumer prices rose in January by 0.5 percent, which translates to a 12-month increase of 3 percent. This was the largest increase since August 2023 and ahead of expectations for a rise of 0.3 percent. The January data has likely ended hopes for an interest rate adjustment in the …

FEBRUARY 10, 2025 – NEW JOBS FALL IN JANUARY There were 143,000 new jobs added to the US economy in January, down from 307,000 created in December and below expectations for 169,000 new positions. The unemployment rate was down to 4 percent. Average hourly wages rose 0.5 percent for the month, and were up 4.2 percent from a year ago. …

FEBRUARY 3, 2025 – FED LEAVES RATES ALONE AS INFLATION TICKS UP The Federal Reserve met last week and left interest rates unchanged. They have entered a wait-and-see stance, choosing to see where inflation goes before acting. Fed Chair Powell pointed out that rates are much less restrictive now than they were a year ago. He is optimistic inflation will …

JANUARY 27, 2025 – THE FED MEETS THIS WEEK The Federal Reserve meets this week on Tuesday and Wednesday where no action is expected on interest rates despite President Trump’s call to lower interest rates immediately. The President wants to boost the economy, even though it is outperforming its peers around the world. It was announced last week that existing …

JANUARY 21, 2025 – INFLATION RISES IN DECEMBER, NEW HOPES FOR RATE CUTS December’s inflation rate ticked up 0.2 percent to 2.9 percent for the year, and up 0.4 percent from November, driven for the most part by gas prices. The core CPI rose by 0.2 percent, its smallest gain since July and below expectations for a 0.3 percent rise. …